Free Nse And Bse Trading Tips

The rally set off a week earlier appears to be continuing. We need to see what impact the CRR news has on the
trends and how much is the influence of the global markets. The flow of results this week will be an important factor
in determining the sentiment. A bottoms up approach seems to be more sensible way of playing the markets as
stock specific moves rather than sector driven trends are likely to be seen. News and events will play an important
part in determining the stock selection so readers are advised to keep their ears open and watch the response of
the stock to the news. Those that create fresh trends on news are the ones to follow further. Proactive short-term
investing rather than long pull investing would be the order of the day for now.

Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals, a part of the K.K. Birla group, is a diversified conglomerate having interests in
fertilizers, phosphoric acid, agri-inputs & seeds, agri-biotechnology, textiles, information technology, food processing
and shipping. It is also India’s largest producer of Urea in the private sector.
Attached below is the monthly chart of this counter. Looking at it we can see that prices having formed a nice, primary
rounding pattern during September 2005, slipped into a tight lateral consolidation phase as they were unable to stage
a breakout from the pattern then. Moving sideways, prices kept making attempts to breakout each time but not finding
enough buyers to get the push upward, prices topped out and slipped into a short term decline. This decline, as we
can see on the chart below, managed to hold support around the ascending bottom to bottom trendline region (pink
line) and managed a quick bounce back. But once again they continued to be range bound, waiting for the right
opportunity to rocket out of the pattern and continuously holding support of the trendline. Prices were finally
successful in breaking out during August 2007 and some fantastic moves then onwards led prices to shoot thru the
roof and complete the pattern target. Having hit a high around 94 during December 2007, which it tried to exceed the
following month, prices slipped into a sharp corrective mode along with the other market participants. We can see
that in the same month prices lost about 70% from the top of the entire rise and some quick buys around the dips led
prices to close above the 62% retracement region. Holding support around some crucial levels—62% retracement,
accumulation pattern breakout region, prior top, prices have rocketed once again last week.
The short term charts show that after few weeks of consolidation near the bottom, prices in the last two sessions
have skyrocketed on fresh and aggressive buying activity. With the kind of move we have seen last week, it seems
certain that something new is brewing in the counter and probably in the whole sector, as we saw most of the fertilizer
stocks hogging the limelight. Momentum on all time frames continue to look positive and with the kind of move seen
last week, they have grown stronger and signal some good moves ahead. With the trend looking good for a fresh ride
ahead, we suggest buying now and on dips for a move back to the top around 90-94 / 115-20 / 145-48.

Motilal Oswal Fin. Services is one of the
leading broking services offering a wide range from
equities, commodities, mutual funds, PMS, etc. It has
branches all across India and also owns a strong
fundamental research arm. Moving to the technical
picture, we note that prices were seen in a strong
uptrend immediately after its listing in Sep 2007.
Hitting its high in Jan 08 around 2270 levels, the prices
were seen reversing its trend. This downtrend hit the
prices so hard that it even went on to break its listing
low and was seen settling at a low of around 515
levels. Slipping into sideways, volume was seen
building up during this phase and with last weeks
smart rise volumes shot up quite well. Recent set of
rise was also seen in sync with the Stochastic
momentum indicator which moved into its overbought
zone. The Bollinger bands widening has further
strengthened the trend and a fresh move is in the offing.
Hence we suggest a fresh buy at the current
levels or dip to 700-695 with stop of 35 points. Targets
expected are 775/836/882 levels in near term.

Avaya Global Connect provides services of software
integration, installation, commissioning and service
support. It also diversified into manufacturing multiple
access radios and point-to-point digital radios and
manufactures voice processing systems, digital
paradigm exchanges. From the technical picture, we
note that the stock had been on a consistent down
trend since Dec 2005 and every rise was seen as an
opportunity to sell. Having moved to its recent low
around 147 levels, it shifted into a sideways phase,
trying to consolidate near the lows. In the attached
daily chart, we see that the recent surge was seen
with prices moving out of its upper Bollinger band with
widening formation. The strong volumes growth in
recent week and prices sustaining at higher levels are
positive indications. RSI momentum indicator has
moved into its bullish zones indicating some strong
buying action in the counter.
Hence we suggest a buy at the current levels
with stop of 20 points and targets of 231/257/280
levels in near term.

Triveni Engg (116.05)

One of the sectors that witnessed a good buying
activity in the last week was the sugar sector. Following
footprints of some of the leaders, this one is also
seen making all the possible efforts of showing some
upward signs. This activity has helped the prices to lift
themselves from the recent low of 90 and move up a
good distance. The pick up from this low had been
forming a lateral phase, forming a strong valuation
around 114-115 levels.
After several failed attempts prices last session finally
managed to give a breakout from the above mentioned
valuation resistance and also the crucial 200 DMA on
the daily chart, just about closing above them. With
further follow thru to this move, it would indicate that
the buyers are getting very active in the counter.
Volumes and momentum are in sync with the current
rise. Weekly close is a positive one and holds out a
promise of rising higher. Factoring all these signals on
charts along with the momentum having picked up in
the market as a whole, one can look to buy this one.
Target comes around 140-145. Stop Loss 100.

Price Target of 280+ in small to medium term.

Key features :-

The revenue of Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) grew by 13.3% year on year (yoy) to Rs13,717.8 crore in CY2007 contributed by an increase in its volumes, a better product mix and price hikes effected during the year. Active cost-cutting measures across segments and prudent price hikes led to a 130-basis-point improvement in the company’s operating profit margin (OPM) to 13.7%. The net profit of the company increased by 14.9% to Rs1,769.1 crore.
The home and personal care (HPC) business comprising soap & detergent and personal care products (contributing around 73% to the total revenue) continued to show a double-digit growth of 12.2% yoy to Rs10,046.4 crore.
The food business posted a strong growth of 20.4% yoy to Rs2,231.1 crore. The company’s innovative and strong brand building capabilities have resulted in strong growth of 15.2%, 39.8% and 17.2% in its beverages, processed foods and ice cream sales respectively.
Exports were affected by the appreciation of the rupee and grew by 5% in rupee terms as against a growth in excess of 15% in dollar terms. The company is rationalising its product portfolio by exiting from low-value businesses to improve the performance of the export business going forward.
HUL completed the buy-back of 3.02 crore shares from the open market at an average price of Rs207.13 per share, leading to an outflow of Rs626.27 crore in CY2007. The equity capital reduced by 1.37% to Rs217.7 crore. Total reserves declined from Rs2,502.81 crore to Rs1,221.49 crore in CY2007. This has led to a hefty improvement in the return ratios. While the return on capital employed (RoCE) improved from 72.6% to 102.2%, the return on net worth (RoNW) improved from 61.2% to 85.0% in CY2007.
Better business performance, efficiencies through cost savings across segments and an efficient collection system resulted in strong operating cash flows of Rs1,710.5 crore.
Nitin Paranjpe (ex-executive director of the HPC segment) has been appointed as the managing director and chief executive officer (CEO) of the company.
We believe that in CY2008 HUL will continue to face intense competition across categories and high cost pressures. Thus the company would have the challenge of maintaining its market share and margins. We believe cost efficiencies along with measured price hikes are going to be the way forward to combat increased input costs to maintain the margins.

Global markets all have corrected lately. Irrespective of which market you are investing in, you would have been affected by the recent volatility. You could be an investor in America, India, China, Korea or anywhere else in the world- your situation would be pretty much the same. Many of you who are new investors might have entered panic mode, where you are unable to relax and have lots of stress and depression. I understand how it must be for somebody who just started investing in either stocks or mutual funds two months ago to see a notional loss of 30% or more now.

I remember the first time several years ago when I witnessed a stock market correction, my portfolio was down by over 50% and I too had entered panic mode. But thankfully after reading books on investing and listening to more experienced investors, I decided not to panic and hold my quality stocks. I am a much happier person today thanks to that decision.

Here are seven simple ways to survive a stock market correction as an investor:

1. Stop Listening To Analysts

Most analysts in the media instead of providing you with a solution will just confuse you. Somebody will say everything is doomed while others will say things are great in the long term. Forget listening to analysts- most of them won’t be of any help. The reason people listen to analysts is because they are looking for peace and hope. Trust me you will get none of that by listening to somebody else. Peace and hope are all within you.

2. Stop Staring At Your Portfolio Every Thirty Minutes

Another mistake people make is that they get up every morning and wait for the markets to open. Once markets open they start staring at their stock prices. A fall makes you feel worse and small rise makes you feel a little better. This won’t help either. Instead keep track of the fundamentals of your company every time the results are out. If your company is profitable and growing - be happy. If it isn’t, find out if you need to exit. The stock price will catch up in the near future if business is growing. Do you stare at your money kept in a bank FD everyday? Most probably not. Use the same principle when you invest in stocks or mutual funds.

3. Be Patient

Many of you might not have a lot of cash to buy cheap now; however please be patient with whatever you have bought. Even the youngest billionaire on Earth today is 23 years old. It took him 23 years to be a billionaire and he didn’t do it in few days or weeks. The youngest billionaire probably in history is 23-year-old Mark Zuckerberg - the founder of the social networking site-Facebook.

4. Speak To Actual Investors With Experience

Instead of interacting with analysts or your broker, speak with people who are actual investors and who have been in the market for longer periods of time than you. They will tell you how they have survived various stock market corrections and what has made them richer. Read and learn more about people who have actually created wealth and sustained it over a long period of time.

5. Stop Following Crazy Tips

Please for heaven’s sake stop following ‘hot’ tips which promise to make you a millionaire in a matter of months. Maybe the ‘hot’ tip is only meant for billionaires who would end up as millionaires in case they do follow the tip. If it seems to good to be true, it is probably just a scam, which hopes to take money away from retail investors and put them in the hands of greedy manipulators. Similarly stop following rumours about how fundamentally strong companies are going to be shut down and go bankrupt in the next few months. Use your own head and trust yourself.

6. Understand Market Cycles

Every asset class has a cycle. Stock markets, mutual funds, real estate all move in cycles. Please realize that nothing can keep going up forever in a single direction. There will be phases when prices will come down and again move up. If you go back into history you will see several instances when stock prices came down, however over a period of time quality companies always reward investors. Understand market cycles, and don’t become a slave to them.

7. Follow The Guru

Today the richest man on earth, Warren Buffett, is an investor who has created wealth because he has stayed away from what everybody else is doing and has simply invested in quality companies for the long term. He invested in Gillette, for the simple reason that he believed that men won’t stop shaving. It makes sense to follow, as I call him, “The Guru” and think long term and remember people who create wealth do things that others don’t.

I’m sure if you follow the simple techniques above you will be a much happier and a calmer investor. Investing is about controlling your emotions and being disciplined about what you do.

Source: Moneycontrol.com

Anil Manghnani of Modern Share & Stock Brokers said that everyone is talking about the bear face of the bear market. However, according to him, as long as the Nifty holds on to 4803, it may be a little safe for the shorter term. His advice is to go long and keep 4800 as the stop loss.

Meanwhile, talking about the banking sector, Neppolian Pillai said that it continues to be one of the strongest sectors of the market. According to him, there are buying opportunity within the largest of largecap banks but the private sectors side looks a little bit weaker.

Excerpts of CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with Anil Manghnani and Neppolian Pillai:

Q: The theory of a range seems to have gone out of the window this month. What would you do as a Nifty trader, what would you work with in terms of what’s happening with the Nifty?

Manghnani:  Now everybody is again talking about the bear face of the bear market. There are many ways to define a bear market or a bear face. The two that I particularly look at is, one is the 50-weekly moving average which I mentioned the other day. Any close below that on a weekly basis becomes a little difficult for the market. Currently, it’s at about 4890 for the Nifty, so we are just trading around those levels. It’s dipped below that on a Sensex about 16577, but we still have today and probably Friday’s trade for the Sensex to comeback over that. Any close below these levels on a weekly basis would define trouble.

The second thing I am fighting with, it’s not matching on the Sensex and the Nifty, is the higher bottom theory, even on a shorter frame. After the 15332 bottom of January 22, we had a 16457 on the Sensex, which corresponds to 4803. On Tuesday, the Sensex broke below and it’s still trading below that 16457, it already broke that higher bottom theory. So the only thing now that’s saving us from entering that difficult bear face term is the 4803 on the Nifty. As long as we hold 4803 on the Nifty, we may be a little safe for the shorter-term.

If you are going long on the Nifty, it’s safe because you are so close to 4800, that your stop loss is limited. So as a Nifty trader, you can go long and keep 4800 as your stop loss.

Q: Banking as a sector has taken quite a knock after the Budget. What are the charts suggesting about the sector and maybe a leading stock like an SBI?

Pillai: The sector continues to be one of the strongest sector in the market, it’s moving within an upward slopping channel. If you look at the comparative chart, last month it was at the higher end of the channel, this month it’s falling to come and touch the lower end. So to that extent, it’s going to be a buying opportunity within the largest of largecap banks.

The private sectors side looks a little bit weaker than the PSUs. So State Bank of India, at the current level of roughly about Rs 1845 to roughly about Rs 1785, would be a great buy range. It’s not gone into a monthly sell yet. It should give you a pullback upto Rs 1960 to Rs 2025. But at this stage, you have to sharply trade rather invest because you are right on that brink of probably entering a bear market. We have not entered it yet. So to that extent, continue to trade and keep the trading range of Rs 1845-1785.

Q: What about FMCG, Hindustan Unilever has done pretty well since the Budget as well. Can you justify or seem more upside here and what about the sector?

Pillai: I remember talking last time that FMCG has broken out of a two-year downtrend-line. Though the long-term four-year downtrend-line is still intact, to that extent it would underperform. Since it’s broken out of the two-year trend, you see all of them, ITC, Hindustan Unilever everything moving up.

Hindustan Unilever it is currently around Rs 226. If you can buy it between around Rs 218-200 levels, it should give you a target of Rs 246. Within the largecap FMCG this looks the best followed by ITC.

Q: The market is talking about autos and pharmaceuticals again. How are two stocks from both those sectors looking Maruti and Dr Reddy’s?

Manghnani: From the Budget beneficial sectors of auto, pharma and FMCG, if you look at three of them on a sectorial basis, I think the one that is clearly broken out of the underperforming stage is pharmaceuticals and you can safely see why. Cipla, Ranbaxy, Sun Pharma, these stocks are just running away like anything.

Ranbaxy is being an old favourite of mine for a long time, so I’m happy to see that move. We have talked about how Cipla did a classic double bottom after hitting Rs 160 three-four months back and in the carnage of January it touched Rs 160 again. So it’s retested its bottom and is now moving up. So having mentioned about Cipla and Ranbaxy, since they have already moved, you stay invested.

But the one we are looking at right now is Dr Reddy. That still hasn’t moved in the same context of Ranbaxy and Cipla and it’s making classic bottoming out sort of formations on the charts, especially on the monthly. I think it’s in a good range, Rs 557-509 would be an ideal range to pick up the stock. Once it takes out Rs 599, then you could see a nice move upto Rs 630.

In auto pack, the breakouts are not as strong as you have seen in pharmaceuticals, and like Neppolian already mentioned in FMCG. But there are early signs that this may now have finished the underperforming stage and now become more of a market performer. And with the Budget sops, you have seen clear-cut movements in both, not four-wheelers but even two-wheelers like Hero Honda moving up. Hero Honda has been our favourite pick over the last few months on a technical basis. Now we have taken out Maruti.

Like Neppolian mentioned, it’s a trading market, so don’t look at it as an investment point of view, but a definite a trading point of view. It’s struggling to break Rs 910, that is a resistance. But anywhere between Rs 910-860 again if it falls is a buying range. I think once it takes out Rs 910 at the upper end, you could easily see Rs 945-975 as a trading move for the stock.

Q: The only non-Index stock in your list is Sesa Goa. What kind of targets do you have for it?

Pillai: Metal is a sector which is strong but it’s coming off the highs. If you look at Sesa Goa, after falling right upto Rs 2000 in that carnage, it’s back to about Rs 3400. Now that gives me interest in that stock that it’s a momentum stock. And since we are talking of trading strategy, and not investment strategy, that stock can really give you a nice trading move. Though it’s about Rs 3450 or Rs 3470 now, my buy range would be slightly lower, closer to around that Rs 3250 zone. It should give you a range right upto Rs 3630 on the upside to around Rs 3750. That’s a Rs 400 range if you but at the lower end. That looks good, momentum is in the stock and it’s tradable at the lower level.

Q: What about real estate, those stocks have been smashed up. Do you sense any kind of an upmove coming there in any of the leading stocks?

Pillai: Not really, I think the real estate sector has gone into a bearish mode already, not such as any other sector. So to that extent, the downside is still there. DLF could fall right upto about Rs 675 and the leading Unitech could comedown all the way upto Rs 307 to about that Rs 250 level. Any pullback is going to be a relief rally. I think from an investment point of view, one needs to wait. Even from a trading buy and from a trade point of view, one needs to wait for the lower level to come in before you move in. At the current stage I think nothing is buyable as of now.

Source: Moneycontrol

You switch onto CNBC TV18 or NTDV or any other similar sites, you most like will come across the term Subprime which the investment experts are regularly discussing about. I’ve discovered two articles which’ll give you an idea what Subprime and Subprime lending is.

Understand what is Subprime and Subprime lending is.

The article pasted below explains how deep the Subprime cut is and what it means to the Indian Market.

There are two theories in context that we have arrived at. Theory One says that subprime low size is at USD 1 trillion. These are the Bank of England estimates. 20% of all subprime is bad, which is valued at close to about USD 200 billion - that’s the estimate of Deutsche Bank. So from USD 2 billion, we bring in a credit multiplier; five times is a rough estimate that people have - if you reduce the credit multiplier to three, the extent of write down will be lower. If you increase it, then the extent of write down will be on the higher side.

To sum up everything - USD 1000 billion is a size of the Indian economy, and that is the extent of write downs that people are expecting.

Quite a day yesterday’s been. Unpredictable and volatile which offered traders gateway to get better returns on their investment.

It was indeed a profit booking day yesterday, as though all the investors were waiting for the magical 21,000 mark, which finally happened around noon, and every one, almost everyone started booking profit :).

Now heading on to todays call, I see some nice stocks for the day and for long term holding as well. There are signs of good momentum in the market, but as I browse around right now, I also see that the US market has tumbled down bad and the Asian  markets haven’t faired well either. I’m bit skeptical about today, but Indian market is far from following the trend, at least for the last few days it has been so.

Infosys

Infosys results are around the corner so one can bet to trade on Intra day / Short term Positional based calls. If it sustains good volum, it looks positive beyond 1720. It has good resistance 1700 and has a major hurdle around 1835.

Polaris

Polaris is looking strong and moving towards 140 + may be can cross 150 +. Keep a SL of 123.

PFC Power finance

PFC looks good for a buy around 248 - 250 and the stock is showing momentum towards 255 - 259.

ITC

Still bullish about ITC. It’s heading towards a target of 239 and then to 250. Keep a stop loss of 224.

Idea and DLF seem to be ready for a move. If you go through one of the old posts, I had mentioned that DLF is ramping towards 1200  and it is still the same, almost there.

Alps Industry

For long term investors (9 - 12 months), alps industries growth rate will pay off on your investments. This is a stock to watch out as it will move from 83 to close to 140 - 150 levels in the specified time.