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SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Vietnam, the world’s second-largest rice exporter, reportedly may lift restrictions on rice exports in July, a move that could potentially ease global rice markets and dampen rice prices, which hit a record high in April.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasury prices clipped their losses Wednesday, flattening yields, after the Federal Reserve slashed its outlook for economic growth this year and reaffirmed policymakers were planning to hold off on future rate cuts.
U.S. stocks extend losses in afternoon trade after the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting show central bankers hesitant to cut interest rates further because of mounting inflation concerns.
On May 21, MarketWatch’s Financial Stocks column incorrectly attributed a report of a computer glitch at Moody’s Investor Services.
The rally set off a week earlier appears to be continuing. We need to see what impact the CRR news has on the
trends and how much is the influence of the global markets. The flow of results this week will be an important factor
in determining the sentiment. A bottoms up approach seems to be more sensible way of playing the markets as
stock specific moves rather than sector driven trends are likely to be seen. News and events will play an important
part in determining the stock selection so readers are advised to keep their ears open and watch the response of
the stock to the news. Those that create fresh trends on news are the ones to follow further. Proactive short-term
investing rather than long pull investing would be the order of the day for now.
Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals, a part of the K.K. Birla group, is a diversified conglomerate having interests in
fertilizers, phosphoric acid, agri-inputs & seeds, agri-biotechnology, textiles, information technology, food processing
and shipping. It is also India’s largest producer of Urea in the private sector.
Attached below is the monthly chart of this counter. Looking at it we can see that prices having formed a nice, primary
rounding pattern during September 2005, slipped into a tight lateral consolidation phase as they were unable to stage
a breakout from the pattern then. Moving sideways, prices kept making attempts to breakout each time but not finding
enough buyers to get the push upward, prices topped out and slipped into a short term decline. This decline, as we
can see on the chart below, managed to hold support around the ascending bottom to bottom trendline region (pink
line) and managed a quick bounce back. But once again they continued to be range bound, waiting for the right
opportunity to rocket out of the pattern and continuously holding support of the trendline. Prices were finally
successful in breaking out during August 2007 and some fantastic moves then onwards led prices to shoot thru the
roof and complete the pattern target. Having hit a high around 94 during December 2007, which it tried to exceed the
following month, prices slipped into a sharp corrective mode along with the other market participants. We can see
that in the same month prices lost about 70% from the top of the entire rise and some quick buys around the dips led
prices to close above the 62% retracement region. Holding support around some crucial levels—62% retracement,
accumulation pattern breakout region, prior top, prices have rocketed once again last week.
The short term charts show that after few weeks of consolidation near the bottom, prices in the last two sessions
have skyrocketed on fresh and aggressive buying activity. With the kind of move we have seen last week, it seems
certain that something new is brewing in the counter and probably in the whole sector, as we saw most of the fertilizer
stocks hogging the limelight. Momentum on all time frames continue to look positive and with the kind of move seen
last week, they have grown stronger and signal some good moves ahead. With the trend looking good for a fresh ride
ahead, we suggest buying now and on dips for a move back to the top around 90-94 / 115-20 / 145-48.
Motilal Oswal Fin. Services is one of the
leading broking services offering a wide range from
equities, commodities, mutual funds, PMS, etc. It has
branches all across India and also owns a strong
fundamental research arm. Moving to the technical
picture, we note that prices were seen in a strong
uptrend immediately after its listing in Sep 2007.
Hitting its high in Jan 08 around 2270 levels, the prices
were seen reversing its trend. This downtrend hit the
prices so hard that it even went on to break its listing
low and was seen settling at a low of around 515
levels. Slipping into sideways, volume was seen
building up during this phase and with last weeks
smart rise volumes shot up quite well. Recent set of
rise was also seen in sync with the Stochastic
momentum indicator which moved into its overbought
zone. The Bollinger bands widening has further
strengthened the trend and a fresh move is in the offing.
Hence we suggest a fresh buy at the current
levels or dip to 700-695 with stop of 35 points. Targets
expected are 775/836/882 levels in near term.
Avaya Global Connect provides services of software
integration, installation, commissioning and service
support. It also diversified into manufacturing multiple
access radios and point-to-point digital radios and
manufactures voice processing systems, digital
paradigm exchanges. From the technical picture, we
note that the stock had been on a consistent down
trend since Dec 2005 and every rise was seen as an
opportunity to sell. Having moved to its recent low
around 147 levels, it shifted into a sideways phase,
trying to consolidate near the lows. In the attached
daily chart, we see that the recent surge was seen
with prices moving out of its upper Bollinger band with
widening formation. The strong volumes growth in
recent week and prices sustaining at higher levels are
positive indications. RSI momentum indicator has
moved into its bullish zones indicating some strong
buying action in the counter.
Hence we suggest a buy at the current levels
with stop of 20 points and targets of 231/257/280
levels in near term.
Triveni Engg (116.05)
One of the sectors that witnessed a good buying
activity in the last week was the sugar sector. Following
footprints of some of the leaders, this one is also
seen making all the possible efforts of showing some
upward signs. This activity has helped the prices to lift
themselves from the recent low of 90 and move up a
good distance. The pick up from this low had been
forming a lateral phase, forming a strong valuation
around 114-115 levels.
After several failed attempts prices last session finally
managed to give a breakout from the above mentioned
valuation resistance and also the crucial 200 DMA on
the daily chart, just about closing above them. With
further follow thru to this move, it would indicate that
the buyers are getting very active in the counter.
Volumes and momentum are in sync with the current
rise. Weekly close is a positive one and holds out a
promise of rising higher. Factoring all these signals on
charts along with the momentum having picked up in
the market as a whole, one can look to buy this one.
Target comes around 140-145. Stop Loss 100.
Disclaimer : Disclaimer .